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ANNUAL REPORT AND ACCOUNTS 2008

Risk management

Market risk

Definition

The risk of reductions in earnings and/or value, through financial or reputational loss, arising from unexpected changes in financial prices, including interest rates, exchange rates, credit spreads and prices for bonds, commodities, equities, property and other instruments. It arises in all areas of the Group's activities and is managed by a variety of different techniques.

Risk appetite

Market risk appetite is defined with regard to the quantum and composition of market risk that exists currently in the Group and the direction in which the Group wishes to manage this.

This statement of the Group's overall appetite for market risk is reviewed and approved annually by the board. With the support of the group asset and liability committee, the group chief executive allocates this risk appetite across the Group. Individual members of the group executive committee ensure that market risk appetite is further delegated to an appropriate level within their areas of responsibility.

Exposures

The Group's banking activities expose it to the risk of adverse movements in interest rates, credit spreads, exchange rates and equity prices, with little or no exposure to commodity risk.

Most of the Group's trading activity is undertaken to meet the requirements of wholesale and retail customers for foreign exchange and interest rate products. However, some interest rate, exchange rate and credit spread positions are taken using derivatives and other on-balance sheet instruments with the objective of earning a profit from favourable movements in market rates.

Market risk in the Group's retail portfolios and in the Group's capital and funding activities arises from the different repricing characteristics of the Group's non-trading assets and liabilities. Interest rate risk arises predominantly from the mismatch between interest rate insensitive liabilities and interest rate sensitive assets.

Foreign currency risk also arises from the Group's investment in its overseas operations.

The Group's insurance activities also expose it to market risk, encompassing interest rate, exchange rate, property, credit spreads and equity risk:

  • The management of the With Profit Fund within Scottish Widows involves mismatching of assets and liabilities with the aim of generating a higher rate of return on assets to meet policyholders' expectations.
  • Unit-linked liabilities are matched with the same assets that are used to define the liability but future fee income is dependent upon the performance of those assets.
  • For other insurance liabilities the aim is to invest in assets such that the cash flows on investments will match those on the projected future liabilities. It is not possible to eliminate risk completely as the timing of insured events is uncertain and bonds are not available at all of the required maturities. As a result the cash flows cannot be precisely matched and so sensitivity tests are used to test the extent of the mismatch.
  • Surplus assets are held primarily in three portfolios: the surplus in the non-profit fund within the long term fund of Scottish Widows plc, assets in shareholder funds of life assurance companies and an investment portfolio within the general insurance business.

The Group's defined benefit staff pension schemes are exposed to significant risks from the constituent parts of their assets and from the present value of their liabilities, primarily equity and real interest rate risk. For further information on pension scheme assets and liabilities please refer to note 37.

Measurement

The primary market risk measure used within the Group is the Value at Risk (VaR) methodology, which incorporates the volatility of relevant market prices and the correlation of their movements. This is used for determining the Group's overall market risk appetite and for the high level allocation of risk appetite across the Group.

Although an important measure of risk, VaR has limitations as a result of its use of historical data, assumed distribution, holding periods and frequency of calculation. In addition, the use of confidence levels does not convey any information about potential loss when the confidence level is exceeded. Where VaR models are less well suited to the nature of positions, the Group recognises these limitations and supplements its use with a variety of other techniques. These reflect the nature of the business activity, and include interest rate repricing gaps, open exchange positions and sensitivity analysis. Stress testing and scenario analysis are also used in certain portfolios and at group level, to simulate extreme conditions to supplement these core measures.

During the year the Group introduced group wide stress testing to measure exposure to credit spread widening across all businesses in response to the market dislocation that has impacted the observable inputs to asset pricing.

BANKING - TRADING AND OTHER FINANCIAL ASSETS AT FAIR VALUE THROUGH PROFIT OR LOSS

Based on the commonly used 95 per cent confidence level, assuming positions are held overnight and using observation periods of the preceding 300 business days, the VaR for the years ended 31 December 2008 and 2007 based on the Group's global trading positions was as detailed in table 1.4.

The risk of loss measured by the VaR model is the potential loss in earnings. The total and average trading VaR does not assume any diversification benefit across the four risk types. The maximum and minimum VaR reported for each risk category did not necessarily occur on the same day as the maximum and minimum VaR reported as a whole. VaR numbers have increased during 2008 due to the significant rise in market volatility reflected in all the Group's VaR models across all markets.

TABLE 1.4: BANKING – TRADING AND OTHER FINANCIAL ASSETS AT FAIR VALUE THROUGH PROFIT OR LOSS
 

31 December 2008

 

Close
£m

Average
£m

Maximum
£m

Minimum
£m

Interest rate risk

6.73

3.36

14.67

0.96

Foreign exchange risk

2.95

1.22

4.06

0.08

Equity risk

0.00

0.25

2.67

0.00

Credit spread risk

7.97

4.94

8.08

4.14

Total VaR

17.65

9.77

24.95

5.35

 

31 December 2007

 

Close
£m

Average
£m

Maximum
£m

Minimum
£m

Interest rate risk

1.63

2.20

4.66

1.27

Foreign exchange risk

0.08

0.23

0.53

0.04

Equity risk

0.00

0.29

3.02

0.00

Credit spread risk

4.21

3.60

8.30

2.06

Total VaR

5.92

6.32

11.00

4.28

BANKING - NON-TRADING

The estimated impact of an immediate 25 basis point increase in interest rates on economic value for the years ended 31 December 2008 and 2007 is shown below (in the 2007 accounts a 200 basis point increase was used). Economic value is defined as the present value of the non-trading portfolios concerned. Impacts have only been shown in one direction but can be assumed to be reasonably symmetrical. No currency breakdown has been provided as most of the exposure is in pounds sterling. These calculations are made monthly using assumptions regarding the maturity of interest rate insensitive assets and liabilities. The portfolio is updated monthly to reflect any changes in the relationship between customer behaviour and the level of interest rates.

This is a risk based disclosure and the amounts below would be amortised in the income statement over the duration of the portfolio. During the year, management reviewed the basis of reporting banking non-trading to a value at risk measure to reflect better the internal measurement used to control this exposure. The decrease compared to the previous year is due to the impact on retail balances of significant cuts in base rate during the last few months of 2008. In view of the unprecedented low interest rate environment in 2009, the assumptions underlying this particular risk measure are under review and likely to change.

TABLE 1.5: BANKING – NON-TRADING
 

31 December
2008
£m

31 December
2007
£m

Reduction in value

(158)

8

INSURANCE PORTFOLIOS

The Group's market risk exposure in respect of insurance activities described above is measured using European Embedded Value (EEV) as a proxy for economic value. The pre-tax sensitivity of EEV to standardised market stresses is shown below for the years ended 31 December 2008 and 2007. Foreign exchange risk arises predominantly from overseas equity holdings. Impacts have only been shown in one direction but can be assumed to be reasonably symmetrical. Opening and closing numbers only have been provided as this data is not volatile or tracked on a daily basis.

TABLE 1.6: INSURANCE PORTFOLIOS

31 December
2008
£m

31 December
2007
£m

Equity risk (impact of 10% fall pre-tax)

(236)

(248)

Interest rate risk (impact of 25 basis point
reduction pre-tax)

59

58

Credit spread risk (impact of 25 basis point
increase pre-tax)

(82)

(110)

Mitigation

Various mitigation activities are undertaken across the Group to manage portfolios and ensure they remain within approved limits.

BANKING - NON-TRADING ACTIVITIES

Interest rate risk arising from the different repricing characteristics of the Group's non-trading assets and liabilities, and from the mismatch between interest rate insensitive liabilities and interest rate sensitive assets, is managed centrally. Matching assets and liabilities are offset against each other and internal interest rate swaps are also used.

The corporate and retail businesses incur foreign exchange risk in the course of providing services to their customers. All non-structural foreign exchange exposures in the non-trading book are transferred to the trading area where they are monitored and controlled.

INSURANCE ACTIVITIES

Investment holdings are diversified across markets and, within markets, across sectors. Holdings are diversified to minimise specific risk and the relative size of large individual exposures is monitored closely. For assets held outside unit-linked funds, investments are only permitted in countries and markets which are sufficiently regulated and liquid.

Monitoring

The senior asset and liability committee regularly reviews high level market risk exposure including, but not limited to, the data described above. It also makes recommendations to the group chief executive concerning overall market risk appetite and market risk policy. Exposures at lower levels of delegation are monitored at various intervals according to their volatility, from daily in the case of trading portfolios to monthly or quarterly in the case of less volatile portfolios. Levels of exposures compared to approved limits are monitored locally by independent risk functions and at a high level by group risk. Where appropriate, escalation procedures are in place.

BANKING ACTIVITIES

Trading is restricted to a number of specialist centres, the most important centre being the products and markets business in London. These centres also manage market risk in the wholesale non-trading portfolios, both in the UK and internationally. The level of exposure is strictly controlled and monitored within approved limits. Active management of the wholesale portfolios is necessary to meet customer requirements and changing market circumstances.

Market risk in the Group's retail portfolios and in the Group's capital and funding activities is managed within limits defined in the detailed Group policy for interest rate risk in the banking book, which is reviewed and approved annually.

INSURANCE ACTIVITIES

Market risk exposures from the insurance businesses are controlled via approved investment policies and limits set with reference to the Group's overall risk appetite and regularly reviewed by the senior asset and liability committee:

  • The With Profit Fund is managed in accordance with the relevant fund's principles and practices of financial management and legal requirements.
  • The investment strategy for other insurance liabilities is determined by the term and nature of the underlying liabilities and asset/liability matching positions are actively monitored. Actuarial tools are used to project and match the cash flows.
  • Investment strategy for surplus assets held in excess of liabilities takes account of the legal, regulatory and internal business requirements for capital to be held to support the business now and in the future.

The Group also agrees strategies for the overall mix of pension assets with the pension scheme trustees.

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